Silvio Berlusconi, the conjurer

Sunday, June 19 2011. 40 thousand supporters of the Northern League gathered in the small town of Pontida to demand tax cuts, whilst Italy's public debt is expected to top 120 per cent of GDP by the end of the year. And Silvio Berlusconi needs to find a way to sort both hassles out: pleasing his ally whilst keeping the commitments taken with the European Union

Northern League's supporters in Pontida

The Northern League (NL) became a crucial ally of Silvio Berlusconi's PdL (People of Freedom party), since former heir apparent Gianfranco Fini left – slamming the door – to form a new party, called Futuro e Libertà per l'Italia (Future and Freedom for Italy).

Bossi, member of the Senate of Italy

But the recent political defeats both in local elections and in national referendum showed Berlusconi's power waning and – consequently – Northern League enthusiasm and loyalty flagging. A poll indicates that 55% of the league's voters disapproved the performance of the Berlusconi's government.

As the greenish NL supporters crowds gathered in Pontida (it's an annual tradition), singing the praises of the secession (a recurring topic of Northern League popularism), Umberto Bossi – who's still the Commander in Chief of the Northern Italy's party – promised that he will extort at least three things from Berlusconi: substantial tax cuts (as a condition of continued support for the government), the move of three Ministries to Northern Italy (even though Gianni Alemanno, PDL's mayor of Rome, warned of a “hard, serious” tussle to defend the capital's privileges) and the end of the support to the anti-Gaddafi war in Libya.

Tremonti and Berlusconi

“Dear Berlusconi,” Bossi barked into the microphone, “your leadership is at risk in the next elections if you don't make some changes.”. But he seemed to be particularly displeased with Giulio Tremonti, the Minister of Economy and Finance, who has done “shameful things”, according to senator Bossi. A scandal. The thing is that Tremonti insists on fiscal rigour, saying he doesn't want to end up like the Greeks did, and he is soon expected to present a three-year austerity plan, which needs to find additional savings of some €40bn (£35.7bn) to reach the goal of balancing the government’s budget by 2014.

Possibly another “shameful thing”, in the eyes of the Northern League's boss, but there remains the danger of Mr Tremonti resigning if his hand is forced, a loss that would be likely to alarm markets.

Rome's mayor Alemanno (left)

In a nutshell: Berlusconi has to give the Northern League a bone, but that would mean to increase Italian deficit and debt (which is the second biggest in Europe, after Greece's troublesome one) and/or quarrel with Rome's mayor Alemanno and/or renounce to Giulio Tremonti's services and/or...

In the past Berlusconi managed to get out of any kind of situation, but this time it seems only a conjurer can sort this mess out.